Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-10-06/treasury-futures-might-switch CTD switch We have talked a few times about the basis trade. What the basis trade is, economically, is that big asset managers want to own interest-rate duration through Treasury futures. A pension fund or endowment might have to make payments
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-10-05/mergers-and-acqui-hires Reverse acqui-hire In recent years, the US technology industry invented a new kind of mergers-and-acquisitions transaction. Traditionally there were two main sorts of M&A transaction: 1. The acquirer buys the target company, in a merger or stock purchase; the
Economy
Source: https://www.tker.co/p/bear-case-scenario-for-long-term-stock-market-investors Nobody likes to see the price of a stock they own go down. But some of the most encouraging stock market stats involve what happens when things go wrong. After Berkshire Hathaway announced Warren Buffett’s retirement, Meb Faber shared this mind-blowing stat.
Economy
Source: https://www.tker.co/p/rates-energy-costs-worse-other-key-metrics-improve Interest rates have been rising this year. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high this week. The average 30-year mortgage rate recently crossed above 7%. 올해 금리가 상승세를 보이고 있습니다. 이번 주에 10년 만기 미 국채 수익률은 24년 만의 최고치를 기록했습니다. 30년
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-10-01/opening-private-markets-to-the-public Private markets are the new public markets: Performance fees A simple model is: 1. Regular retail investors pay index fund managers fees of approximately 0.03% of assets. 2. Sophisticated institutional investors pay hedge fund and private equity fund managers fees
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-30/ai-agents-will-pay-attention Attention is all you need My little financials dispersion trade[1] is: 1. Some retail-facing financial businesses make their money from customers who pay too little attention. 2. Some retail-facing financial businesses make their money from customers who pay too much
Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-29/is-existential-risk-securities-fraud Sub-existential risk One thing that artificial intelligence labs’ frontier models have gotten up to recently is hacking into companies’ and governments’ computer systems. If you are worried about AI as an existential threat to humanity, these hacking incidents probably make you more
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-28/banks-recycle-the-risk Structured notes A traditional model might be: There are a lot of investors in the world and they each want to take some risks. Some big asset managers want to own the stock market and also buy some put options for
Economy
Source: https://www.tker.co/p/ai-depreciation-expense-earnings-accounting-headwind Is the massive and growing investment in AI infrastructure worth it? It’s a loaded question that yields different answers — depending on who you ask. AI 인프라에 대한 대규모의 지속적인 투자는 과연 그만한 가치가 있을까요? 이는 누구에게 묻느냐에 따라 서로 다른 대답이 나오는,
Economy
Source: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/more-on-repealing-the-laws-of-economics Last September, I wrote a memo titled Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics? in which I described economies as organic entities that operate on their own pursuant to some underlying laws. The best known is the law of supply and demand:
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-24/morgan-stanley-leaked-some-deals?srnd=undefined Deal list leak I always think of an investment banking group’s “pipeline” as a fairly aspirational document. “What deals do we have coming,” your boss asks you, so you go write down a list of: * Deals on which
Economy
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-23/kalshi-levers-the-predictions Kalshi Klear Back in March, I wrote up a little flight of fancy about leveraged prediction markets. A prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket mostly lists binary event contracts that pay out $1 if some event happens or $0 if it